It’s late January and the cycle of winter weather has begun. Here in Tennessee we have some ice and snow. It’s not normal down here so of course the populace of Middle Tennessee is gearing up for the worst – after all the weatherman is predicting a whopping three inches of snow.

But further East, a large winter storm has the Washington DC area in its crosshairs. We lived out there for nearly 14 years and saw the winter weather hype every year. It goes something like this:

You’re watching your favorite TV show and during the commercial break, the news preview comes on:

“Major winter storm on its way. Why this could be one for the record books. Details at 11.”

So the first thing that happens is the kids start in:

“Dad do you think schools will be closed tomorrow?”

Then the Federal employee spouse:

“They better shut the government down tomorrow. All those people riding Metro and the roads will be jammed. I think I’ll telework tomorrow” (code for I’m going to stay home and pretend I’m working by regularly checking email.)

Then a neighbor posts a photo on Facebook of the lines and empty shelves down at the grocery store. Caption reads:

“You better get down here to Wegmans – the aisles are packed and the lines to check out wrap around the store”

Your heart is racing. You feel so unprepared.

The ticker across the bottom of the screen starts. Your kids watch anxiously for school closures. They cheer when they see Montgomery County schools are closed. Then you see the Federal government says unscheduled leave/telework in effect. You race down the grocery store to find a crowded parking lot, empty shelves, and long checkout lines. You scavenge what you can find but of course there are no more eggs, milk, or toilet paper (those three items seem to be a triad that can’t be broken.) An hour later you return home with a dozen cans of cream of potato soup (everything other flavor was gone), a carton of almond milk, and a case of generic tissue paper (in lieu of toilet paper). You try to find extra space in the pantry for the soup, moving the cans of beans, Spaghetti-os, and green beans; to make room for your desperately-needed storm provisions.

At last you can sleep knowing you can at least survive a day or two when the catastrophe hits.

Next morning, there is nothing on the ground. By 10AM your kids are bored. You’ve lost a day of work since none of your clients are in the office. Your spouse opts for the telework to save a day of leave; and still does no work save for the strategically-timed emails to make it look like they’re working.

You’ve bought into the hype and it bit you right back.

Who wins?

  • The TV network has record ratings.
  • Kids have a day off school.
  • Teachers have a day off school.
  • Spouse has free day off.
  • Stores have record profits.

This comes at cost to all too. Lost business for a day. Lost hours in the classroom. Lost productivity in the government (well that’s a stretch).

Here’s the formula:

O + P x A = H

Objective data + Past Experience x Anxiety = Hype

The big question is what will the hype cost?

In the DC area, it’s probably never considered. It’s a way of life. But in a business or organization, hype can cause you to make rash decisions with sometimes-negative unintended consequences. This could be unneeded purchases, rash hiring/firing decisions, or worse, inactivity that leads to a negative outcome.

Your challenge is to manage information, leaving out the anxiety to avoid creating hype.

How?

  1. Get well-rounded, balanced sources of information.
  2. Keep track of past behaviors and performances during previous challenges.
  3. Communicate calmly and objectively.
  4. Take action based on accurate forecasts and business case scenarios.
  5. Monitor everything so you can make any necessary adjustments either up or down.

Smart people make rational decisions using data. Dumb people listen to what sounds most sensational and fall in line with the mob.

If you’re ready to move beyond hype and make the most of a challenging time, follow the steps above and communicate to your staff what responses will look like from here on out.